PrintAs the insurgent offensive was initially underway in northwest Syria, an interviewee who had worked with the Iranian-backed formations in Syria and operated on the Aleppo frontlines with the insurgents mentioned to me that the attack itself was "expected" but not the size of it. I have to admit that when initially thinking about the situation, I was skeptical about anticipation of the insurgent offensive by the government forces and its allies. Looking back over the reports I have compiled here in translation as a historical resource, I think my assessment has been too skeptical with regards to the government side.
Put another way, it seems to me that there was some sense of caution against a possible insurgent offensive, but it is likely that the scale of any possible offensive was underestimated: that is, one can still speak of complacency on the part of the government and its allies. Perhaps this complacency was partly driven by the belief that the ceasefire arrangement in place since 2020 would ultimately hold. It may also have derived from overconfidence in the effectiveness of the defensive lines to protect Aleppo city, or not considering the capture of Aleppo city as a serious goal for the insurgents.
[Click here to continue reading]:
https://www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-build-up-to-the-northwest-syria